Our approach Futures and strategic foresight The Future of Sustainability 2020 We live in hugely uncertain times. COVID-19 has shocked the very systems on which we rely, kickstarting a decade already heading for extreme turbulence. We are set to see wide-ranging change and transitions – both positive and negative. Come 2030, will we find ourselves in a just, resilient and sustainable world? Or one in which we witness ever more destabilising shocks? Forum for the Future’s latest Future of Sustainability report, From System Shock to System Change – Time to Transform, explores the five key dynamics that lie at the heart of these transitions. It considers the interconnected nature of human and planetary health, and reveals four trajectories emerging from the COVID-19 crisis – only one of which will deliver the just transition urgently needed if we are to avert the worst of the social, climate and biodiversity crises we all face. Download now What we found: The Five Key Dynamics Defining the 2020s ‘Dynamics’ take into account the: latest signals of change – social, political, economic, environmental and political ideas, developments or innovations able to disrupt current norms; trends these signals create interactions between trends – with two or more combining in clusters to potentially shift whole systems. There are five dynamics we should all take note of. 1. Biosphere breakdown Every living thing on Earth is dependent on a healthy, functioning biosphere. This is the global ecological system that integrates all life with the natural systems which enable it to thrive – such as the climate, air currents and water cycles. The whole history of human civilisation has been played out within a stable biosphere, allowing us to flourish and grow – but this stability is set to comecrashing to an end. The planet’s living systems are under severe stress from the destruction of biodiversity, rampant mismanagement of freshwater resources and climate breakdown. These three, deeply intertwined systems are in crisis, and as they fall apart, we risk crossing irreversible tipping points of no return – thereby entering a radically unstable biosphere unlike anything seen in the past hundred thousand years. How can we seize the opportunity to protect the planetary systems we all depend on? 2. Economic crisis and reform Our current global financial system is severely imbalanced, vulnerable to shocks and low on monetary tools to tackle them. It also misallocates resources at extraordinary scale due to an economic model focused on short-term profits and growth almost at any cost. This systemic misallocation exacerbates wealth and power inequalities. It also multiplies the risk we face from biosphere breakdown and severely hampers attempts to prevent it. This is the backdrop against which the response to COVID-19 has played out. Governments and businesses continue to act quickly and decisively to the public health crisis. The challenge now is for them to respond to climate and biosphere breakdown with equal urgency. This starts by ensuring stimulus packages for post COVID-19 recovery help tackle – rather than worsen – the crisis. How can we create a resilient economic system that delivers social and environmental value? 3. Tech & Governance Nexus The digital revolution is transforming our economies and our lives at exponential rates. Algorithms are revolutionising how our personal data is held – and profited from. Automation is gaining momentum across multiple sectors and industries – from insurance to transport. The power and potential of artificial intelligence is growing, everyday. The benefits of a booming tech industry are undeniable: newfound opportunities to tackle environmental issues, speeding the adoption of the circular economy, improving healthcare, preventing fraud – and many, many more. But so too are the unintended consequences. As the power and wealth of major tech corporations grows, what are these unintended consequences? How are governance systems absorbing and responding? And what does it mean for our future? Will technology lock us into an unsustainable trajectory or enable a regenerative future? 4. Equitable transitions 82% of the wealth generated globally in 2017 went to the richest 1%, while half the population still live on less than $5.50 per day. Across much of the world, the gap between rich and poor and across generational, racial and class lines is widening. In disproportionately impacting the poor and the climate crisis is compounding the problem. The UN has warned that climate change threatens to undo much of the progress made in development over the last 50 years and create a world in which the rich alone are able to buy their way out of rising heat and hunger. Add to this, COVID-19 continues to sharpen deep, systemic and long-standing inequalities. We face a reckoning on social injustice, but where can we focus efforts to intervene at scale and at pace? How can we ensure a just transition to the future we want? 5. Regenerative approaches We live in extraordinary times, when the interlocking crises facing humanity can seem overwhelming in their complexity and impact. Yet there is hope emerging from people and organisations that are embracing and experimenting with ‘regenerative’ approaches – challenging us to work with rather than against, the power of living systems. While ‘regenerative’ approaches are not new, the systemic nature of the world’s issues is placing a newfound urgency on us all to adopt them, and quickly. Are regenerative approaches the critical unlock to the challenges of the decade ahead? What next? Emerging trajectories that may shape our future In our immensely disrupted world, there are countless ways forward. Among them, we see four trajectories emerging from the radical change brought by COVID-19, each underpinned by a different mindset or set of values – and with both positive and negative aspects. Underlying mindset: There is not enough to share. We must retreat to protect our own kind. Our survival and prosperity comes ahead of the survival and prosperity of others. In brief: Compete and Retreat is characterised by the strengthening of existing nationalist dynamics, pointing towards the collapse of what’s left of globalisation and international collaboration, and the emergence of fragmented regionalism. Watch film Underlying mindset: Greater control is required to maintain public health, safety and security, and to keep growth and global interconnection going as ‘normal’. We are prepared to relinquish privacy concerns for this. In brief: Discipline is characterised by the ramped up use of technology for automation, remote connection, surveillance an control in an attempt to manage complex problems, to return to some form of globalisation and to keep the current model of growth going. Watch film Underlying mindset: Planetary health and human wellbeing come first, and are interconnected. Deep change to reset the system is possible, desirable and happening. We can’t go back to ‘before’. In brief: Transform is characterised by the harnessing of the recovery from the pandemic as a ‘reset’ to accelerate a fair and equitable zero-carbon transition and enable a shift towards approaches like stakeholder capitalism, ‘doughnut economics’ and wellbeing budgeting. New business models that emerge are based on resilience and regenerative thinking. Watch film Underlying mindset: There might not ever be a ‘new normal’; the world is now strange and volatile beyond all previous human experience. Previous ways of thinking are no longer helpful. Radical resilience, adaptability and opportunism jostle with fatalism and anxiety. In brief: Unsettled is characterised by continuous discontinuity from cascading events and crises of all kinds – climate and ecological, political, social and technological – and the need to adjust to a difficult and strange reality of ‘no new normal’. Watch film With thanks to our partners We would like to thank our valuable partners whose support and insights made the Future of Sustainability possible: Manage Cookie Preferences