How can businesses stay resilient, thrive, and contribute to transformation in a world hit by climate disruption? In this piece, Forum for the Future’s Principal Sustainability Strategist Yamini Srivastava outlines how, while many businesses in India are facing climate threats and are taking action on climate challenges, there is still a need to go beyond immediate risk management to take a systemic approach. There is an opportunity here for businesses to work through disruption in ways that not only keep them future fit but contribute to everyone’s resilience.

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Climate disruption is the new normal, weaving through every element of the polycrisis. Climate change and its impacts are well underway - from extreme weather events, loss of life, damage to infrastructure, adverse impacts to food and water security, irreversible losses across ecosystems, to fundamental challenges to our ways of life. 

Even so, globally, responses to climate impacts often fall short of what will be actually needed and some are even maladaptive, i.e. adaptation that ends up increasing vulnerabilities. One example of maladaptation is seen in the case of Arakhakuda village in Odisha where mangrove plantation did not protect against cyclonic impacts. While the mangroves were planted as an ecosystem-based solution for coastal adaptation going wrong, it was done in an area where mangroves did not exist before (rather than mangrove restoration in areas where they were lost).

Climate mitigation and resilience at the forefront of business response

With climate impacts already locked in and with India being one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, Indian businesses need to focus on climate adaptation and resilience much more strongly. 

The good news is that Indian businesses are increasingly factoring climate change into their planning. According to Deloitte’s 2023 CxO Sustainability Report, at least 57% CxOs said climate change is among their top three priorities, compared to 42% of global CxOs, and another recent report from PWC states that 60% of Indian companies are innovating new, climate friendly products or processes. 

As highlighted in these reports, the types of climate measures that businesses are taking appear to be more focused on mitigation although building climate resilience is also a theme. Common examples of measures include increasing the efficiency of energy use, using more sustainable materials, using more energy-efficient equipment, reducing emissions, applying an internal carbon price, implementing initiatives to protect assets and workforces from the physical impacts of climate change, and making operations/supply chains more climate-resilient. 

With the whole world hit hard by climate change and many impacts being locked in, it is not possible to run away or stay immune to disruption while carrying on with ‘business as usual’. 

When businesses consider steps to build climate resilience, they often do so as part of risk assessment and management plans using near term time horizons. These plans might consider factors such as physical risks to infrastructure, people, and supply chains, or to the viability of business operations, from climate related events or shifts. They might also look at adaptive strategies such as procuring raw materials from less hard-hit regions of the world, supply chain shifts, updated insurance plans, and other strategies to deal with disruptions to operations. 

Mitigation and risk management approaches are no doubt necessary and useful but they are likely to face limits. With the whole world hit hard by climate change and many impacts being locked in, it is not possible to run away or stay immune to disruption while carrying on with ‘business as usual’. 

Going beyond a risk management playbook

As climate impacts intensify everywhere, how can businesses help themselves and others to deeply face up to the challenge in a way that uses disruption as an opportunity for transformational change? 

To move from reactive and narrow responses to truly transformational approaches, we need to think about the future and approach adaptation in much more systemic ways. 

At Forum for the Future, we support businesses to take ambitious, transformative approaches when considering their purpose and role in supporting social justice and regeneration, even through an operating context hit by climate change. 

Systems and futures thinking approaches can work well when operating in uncertain, dynamic contexts where the big picture is shifting. They help to: 

• Understand the impacts of climate change from multiple perspectives and dimensions (for example, physical and ecological impacts, social, economic, political, cultural dimensions);
• Think about and question assumptions and narratives that underlie typical responses, identify intended and unintended consequences of different approaches; and 
• Support with making sure that we are learning and iterating as we go. 

For example, applying futures thinking methods to climate adaptation can help to envision different futures while looking at climate impacts, as well as how different types of responses to those impacts might play out and their implications. 

For businesses, this approach is useful to identify what needs to be done differently to stay resilient in the face of climate disruption and continue to deliver on their purpose, or even redefine their purpose. 

How does our purpose and role change in a world in the midst of the climate crisis? How can we work with others to support our business and the people, ecosystems and landscapes linked with our business to stay resilient and even thrive in the face of climate disruption? How do we maintain an agile approach with room for learning and iteration as our context continues to change?

A standard business response to climate risks may look at physical impacts from climate change such as disruptions to operations or physical impacts faced by workers and infrastructure. 

Taking a systemic lens on the other hand can involve looking across longer time horizons, looking at different types of risks such as transition risks (risks related to shifts towards a low carbon world), surfacing and exploring uncertainties, examining how change can happen, and situating our own purpose and role in that context.

Questions at the heart of such an approach include: 

• How does our purpose and role change in a world in the midst of the climate crisis? 
• How can we work with others to support our business and the people, ecosystems and landscapes linked with our business to stay resilient and even thrive in the face of climate disruption? 
• How do we maintain an agile approach with room for learning and iteration as our context continues to change?

Helping businesses work with complexity and uncertainty

Using these approaches, we’ve seen businesses expand their perception of risk, spot uncertainties, identify nuances in how larger dynamics in their operating context affect them directly and indirectly, make significant changes in business strategy, and re-examine their own role and purpose. 

Of course, no single approach or tool offers a silver bullet to fully address the challenge of adapting to climate change. However, systems and futures thinking approaches are a step forward in helping businesses work with complexity and uncertainty, and to deeply understand what it means to stay relevant, resilient, and true to their core purpose in a disrupted world.

Get in touch

Want to understand how your business can navigate climate disruption with systems and futures thinking approaches? Write to Yamini to find out more.