The map

This is the first version of the map we’ve created. It brings together the key tipping points and feedback dynamics that were identified for the decade ahead to 2030, from the perspective of change-makers largely based in the Global North who are trying to enable shifts in global systems. It is necessarily partial. We have mapped them onto a multilevel perspective from the point of view of the present moment, but looking ahead across the decade.

The system map is littered with extraordinary risks to navigate in both natural and human systems, many of which are under-appreciated. But it also highlights important potential openings, and emergent dynamics that could provide the shifts we need in the short time we now have to act.

Biosphere breakdown
The real, extremely serious and under-appreciated danger of the biosphere tipping points and thresholds that could be crossed thisdecade, and the related hidden intervention points in human systems, particularly the finance system, where action needs to happen as soon as possible.

Energy/ finance nexus
The current finance system is a major lock-in factor for entrenched and deepening structural inequality, and climate and ecological breakdown, and it is increasingly interacting with the risk of significant stranded assets in the energy system. The nexus of these factors presents major challenges to effective decarbonisation and risks another serious global financial crash with disabling systemic effects when we can least afford it. 

Tech / governance nexus
There are extraordinary dynamics in play at the interface of governance and technology, with further ramifications when AI and other 4th industrial revolution tech comes on board this decade. Unfortunately, the current power dynamics we found at this interface - and also within mainstream tech development - risk locking us into an unsustainable paradigm - concentrating power in the hands of the few. This prompted us to ask what truly regenerative technology might look like and how quickly might we move towards a framework to enable it? 

Opening points
Fortunately, we also mapped a number of potentially significant hopeful systemic effects from the middle of the decade onwards, from the tip away from fossil fuels globally to the generational transition that occurs globally around mid-decade, and the fertile ground for a values shift to happen here. 

Regenerative approaches
A key conclusion is that there is significant hope for realising an emergent regenerative culture towards the end of the decade if sustained action is taken, starting now. What do we mean by regenerative? We’re not sure yet, but we are uncovering a huge amount of activity that is already taking place here, largely outside the mainstream and off-radar, and doing some deep work with our partners to understand the potential implications for emerging into a world that is truly resilient and sustainable.