How will we holiday in 2023? No one can predict the future and the Tourism 2023 scenarios do not try to. But they do each show a plausible world we might find ourselves in.

The four scenarios explore the key uncertainties facing the tourism industry and offer vivid images of possible futures. They have been brought to life in animations created by students from Goldsmiths’ College, London.

Boom and burst

A booming UK economy and impressive advances in transport technologies have fuelled a growth in travel worldwide. People travel more frequently, for further and at faster speeds than ever before and there are many new reasons to go abroad.

But precarious trade-offs have been needed in order to meet the UK’s emission targets, and many destinations are suffering from serious overcrowding. People are now asking: how long can this growth be maintained?

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Divided disquiet

Travelling overseas is an unattractive proposition. A toxic combination of devastating climate change impacts, violent wars over scarce resources and social unrest has created an unstable and fearful world. Security is tight and travel is cumbersome, time-consuming and inefficient.

Visitors are highly selective in where and when they travel, cramming into a small number of destinations where tight restrictions and overcrowding compound the problems. Many people have begun to think that holidaying abroad just makes the problems worse.

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Price and privilege

A dramatically high oil price has made travel punitively expensive. Cost is the primary concern for holidaymakers as everyone asks: how far can I get for my money?

Although a small, elite market continues to fly regularly, the vast majority of people simply cannot afford the experience. There have been mass redundancies across the travel industry and the affordability of overland routes has led to radical restructuring.

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Carbon clampdown

Tradable carbon quotas have been introduced for all UK households as part of the government’s bold plans to tackle climate change. The public has clamoured for tough action as environmental impacts are increasingly felt.

Holidaymakers are highly sensitive to the impacts of their travel and seek ethical experiences that are within their carbon budget. Holidaying in Britain is back in fashion and has soared in popularity.

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Credits

"Boom and Burst"
Scenario by Forum for the Future
Animation by Zarino Zappia,
Narration by Richard Earl
 
 
"Divided Disquiet"
Scenario by Forum for the Future
Animation by Stevie Robinson
Narration by Claire Wyatt
 
 
"Price and Privilege"
Scenario by Forum for the Future
Animation by Jane Xu
Narration by Claire Wyatt
 
 
"Carbon Clampdown"
Scenario by Forum for the Future
Animation by Aaron Lee
Narration by Richard Earl, Nicholas Rutherford and Claire Wyatt