Each scenario is a different version of what the retail sector and its operating context could look like in 2022. None is intended to be a prediction, or to be seen as better or worse than the others.

Each scenario is intended to be a plausible, internally consistent, possible future in its own right, reflecting combinations of the desirable and less desirable outcomes that will be a feature of most future trends.

The scenario axes

Why these scenarios and these axes?

The similarities between the scenarios – that they all exist in a world of climate change, resource depletion, global economic and demographic shifts, for example – reflect what we can be more certain about over the next 15 years.

The differences between the scenarios exploit current uncertainties about the future. These uncertainties are indicated by two major axes, as shown in the diagram. The vertical axis exploits economic uncertainties. Thus in ‘From me to you’ and ‘I’m in your hands’ growth has been slower. Both worlds are affected by a decrease in consumer confidence and lower levels of household disposable income, whereas in ‘my way’and ‘sell it to me’, growth and confidence have been more sustained.

The horizontal axis exploits uncertainties about ideology and outlook. There are strong trends within the retail market towards taking companies an enhanced role in consumers’ lives, through providing customised products, ready-meals, convenience stores or one-stop retail villages. Many consumers are asking for this.

There are also strong trends that suggest consumers want more power to do things for themselves: the demand for more information about products, the desire for a personal link with the products they consume, or a willingness to trade with peers on the internet.

We do not know how these divergent trends will develop in the future, but the impacts on retail and how it tackles sustainable development are profound. Thus in the ‘Do It Yourself’ scenarios, ‘my way’ and ‘from me to you’, consumers are less willing to trust that business will act in the interests of society and would rather take responsibility themselves, while in the ‘Do It For Me’ scenarios, consumers want business to take a greater social role.

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