Right on retailers?

Supermarkets have a come a long way in the last few years – many are stocking local food, using greener transport, and encouraging customers to shop more ethically. But what should leadership at the top of the food custody chain look like tomorrow?

Sally Uren, director of Forum for the Future's Business Programme paints a picture of the future.

Being a low-carbon retail leader isn’t about pushing niche food items. It means getting sustainable, profitable, mainstream products on the shelves which:

Cause no harm. As part of its ‘Look Behind the Label’ campaign, Marks & Spencer is busy phasing out pesticides from food production – having already banned 60. We need to see more of these bold steps, for the sake of both the environment and human health.

Have a small carbon footprint. Today, pioneering companies such as Walkers Crisps are using life-cycle analyses to work out the impacts of products from farm to fork [see 'Carbon's vital statistics']. Tomorrow, leadership means working with suppliers, the unsung heroes of the green retail revolution, to find ways around the environmental and social pinch points and, critically, to share the benefits.

Support those further down the supply chain. Retailers such as Sainsbury’s, whose Farm Promise milk subsidises farmers converting to organic, are investing in their suppliers to ensure their longterm economic security. More of this can only mean a sustainable supply of key commodities…

It’s essential that supermarkets get customers on board through:

Choice editing. M&S is gradually reducing consumer choice in its product lines – tea and coffee for starters – leaving the consumer with no option but to buy more ethically.

Marketing campaigns. If it takes the customer an average of four seconds to make a purchasing decision, a label alone can’t explain sustainability. At Waitrose [see 'Retailing the region'] they’ve set the standard in point-ofsale information, with dedicated display areas, bespoke shelf edge ticketing and Seasons magazine. Might we one day see low-carbon menu cards on aisle corners?

Rewards. Tesco has taken the lead with its green Clubcard scheme, giving extra points for buying goods such as organic fruit and veg. How much further might retailers dip their toe in the waters of behavioural change?

A low-carbon in-store experience. What better way to make green issues real than in a sustainably built, state-of-the-art store with the odd food waste digester chugging away in the corner?

Tom Berry, principal sustainability advisor at Forum for the Future juggles the scenarios.

It’s 2022 – and the world of food retail is a very different place. Economic prosperity and confidence have continued for an unprecedented 25 years and big business has become even more a part of our lives, meeting needs we didn’t even know we had.

For the consumer, doing the shopping has taken on a whole new meaning.

It starts in the kitchen, where fridges can now ‘talk’ to their owners. A web-enabled screen on the door tells them when food is about to go off and can come up with a nutritionally balanced menu with what’s inside – a kind of personalised ‘Ready Steady Cook’. It can create shopping lists using criteria such as ‘low GI’ or ‘only UK-grown vegetables in season’.

The emphasis on the personal has gone so far that shoppers can even request their cornflakes to be made with locally grown corn – or added liver cleanser. These bespoke services depend on supermarkets collecting a lot of information on consumers. But that’s part of daily life with the rise of loyalty cards and Facebook.

In return, the public expects a lot from retailers. Now that environmental and social concerns are as mainstream as health and safety, it’s the companies that fit these values who are winning hearts and minds – and gaining global competitive advantage.

Their extensive supply chains mean that retailers are looking to capitalise on economic and environmental efficiencies. We’re not just talking biodiesel delivery lorries, but actually making investments in new fuels and a highspeed shipping network. Government guidelines on carbon in the supply chain have certainly been a shot in the arm for the laggards.

The picture’s not all rosy. Supermarkets still have to respond to the same ‘more for less’ cry from consumers, especially on everyday items like bread and milk. And without strong minimum standards across the industry, some supply chains are still unsustainable – especially with the packaging impact of the boom in personalised products. Even the rise of environmental consciousness hasn’t made a dent in consumerism – and looks unlikely to do so, what with the number of innovative products continuing to hit the market.

Which future do you want?

This description comes from just one of the four scenarios developed by Forum for the Future as part of the Retail Futures 2022 study. Sponsored by Unilever and Tesco, this work involved examining current and emerging trends influencing the industry, obtaining insights from over 50 industry opinion leaders, and running a series of structured workshops to help develop possible futures.

Of course, no one knows what things will look like in 2022. That’s why Retail Futures includes a range of different scenarios. What if, for example, the economic boom came to an end, and shoppers were less inclined to trust big retailers? They might turn instead to urban farming and peer-to-peer sales of homegrown food through services like eBay. Each scenario includes some trends that we might want to make happen, and some we can be careful to avoid. By challenging the conventional wisdom, they can help create a vision of what true sustainability might look like.

For more information, see www.forumforthefuture.org.uk

11 October 2007