American Eye

”A vote for big change not Big Oil.”
“A step from the Dark Ages to the Space Age.”
The US mid-term elections sure brought out the green hyperbole. But Polly Ghazi believes we can look forward to real progress too.

The timing was eerily appropriate. As Washington residents basked in record December heat, climate change at long last moved towards centre stage in the US capital.

Environmental leaders have ratcheted up expectations for swift action to regulate greenhouse gases and promote energy conservation. And the shift in control of Congress has produced a flurry of pledges from incoming Democratic committee heads, to put the issue at the top of their agendas.

But how much practical policy can realistically be achieved by a still closely divided House and Senate, especially when a hostile president wields the power of veto?

The answer, promisingly, is quite a lot. If top Democrats deliver on their promises and draw some moderate Republicans on board, we should see climate hearings begin in the spring and a bipartisan climate bill land on George W. Bush’s desk in 2007. Also likely on his watch is legislation to promote energy independence by pumping up the biofuels and renewables industries and raising vehicle efficiency.

Who will be the key players? Nancy Pelosi, incoming Speaker of the House of Representatives, who has impeccable environmental voting credentials, has signaled that she will throw her full weight behind a priority climate bill. Skilled at wheeling and dealing, she will help committee chairs produce consensus legislation from among the climate bills now circulating [GF59 ] which will gain the votes needed to pass both House and Senate.

Barbara Boxer, another California Democrat, will chair the important Senate Environment and Public Works Committee in the new Congress. The day after the elections, Boxer pledged to hold “extensive hearings” on climate change, which she has described as the “greatest challenge of our generation.” She also outlined plans to model federal legislation after a new California law that mandates 25% cuts in GHG emissions by 2020 [GF 61 ]. It could hardly be more different from the attitude of her predecessor, Republican James Inhofe, who infamously described climate change as “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated”, and whose departure removes the biggest roadblock to Congressional action.

Another big winner is Democrat Jeff Bingaman who will take the helm of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. A moderate climate bill he introduced in 2006 was narrowly defeated and he is expected to press hard for stronger fuel-economy standards, a renewables requirement for US electricity generation, and cuts in bloated oil and gas subsidies.

Beyond climate, too, the news is good. The defeat of notorious anti-conservationist Richard Pombo, former chair of the House Resources Committee, means an end to his controversial proposals to undermine endangered species’ protection and drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. With poetic justice, he lost to a Californian wind power entrepreneur.

Whatever Congress achieves, or fails to achieve, there is a second frontline in the environmental policy battlefield that deserves close attention: the state governments. This front also shifted greenwards in the mid-term elections, with several sustainability-minded Democrats elected governors over Republican incumbents. Among them: Martin O’Malley in Maryland, Deval Patrick in Massachusetts, Ted Strickland in Ohio and Bill Ritter in Oregon. While it’s too early to predict their priorities, they are likely to join the dozen states that have already set (mostly non-mandatory) timetables and targets for statewide GHG reductions.

“The White House is now almost as isolated on climate change as it is on Iraq.”

Crusading state governments also managed to get climate change on to the national stage before the new Congress even opened. On 29 November the Supreme Court began hearing oral arguments in the case brought by Massachusetts and 11 others, arguing that the Environmental Protection Agency has a duty to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles to protect public health. The court’s finding is due in the spring.

Where does all this leave the White House? In a nutshell, almost as isolated on climate change policy as it is on Iraq. Not only do Democrats now control Congress, but Republican 2008 presidential frontrunner John McCain is a keen advocate of CO2 regulation, as are other leading party moderates. So it was no surprise when rumours began circulating in early December that Bush will announce a climate policy shift in his January State of the Union address. Still, I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Polly Ghazi is US correspondent for Green Futures.

12 January 2007

Polly Ghazi