It’s a brave person who’s prepared to make predictions for 2009 after the year we’ve just had. The seismic shifts over the last 12 months should be looked at afresh before any crystal ball gazing. So it’s worth asking, did anyone actually get it right?

In the last year, we’ve seen oil prices at a record $150 a barrel; food riots from Mexico to West Africa; the election of the first black President of the US; and a global economic recession with the nationalisation of some of the world’s leading financial institutions.

Could anyone have predicted all that? Clearly not, but some certainly made a good effort. Scenarios are not meant to be predictions, but images of possible, plausible futures that draw on emerging trends. Three are worth revisiting.

The UK Government’s Intelligent Infrastructure Futures: Scenarios – Towards 2055 had a scenario called “Tribal trading”.  In this, a “sharp energy shock” combined with intense competition for resources like food creates a global economic slump. This scenario even contains an imaginary timeline with an event for 2026 reading: “UK banking system collapses”.

The Ministry of Defence’s DCDC Global Strategic Trends 2007-2036, published in December 2006, examined a series of risks, including this one: “US Economic Crisis. The US position as the world’s most indebted nation makes it vulnerable to stock market collapse, currency runs and economic crisis, as well as global currency manipulation. The most likely cause of crisis would be energy market instability or volatility leading to a loss of market confidence. Also, failure to continue to support or service its debt in these circumstances would put US creditors and commodity suppliers at risk, possibly causing a global economic downturn”.

Forum for the Future’s Retail Futures, published in September 2007, explored one scenario called “from me to you”. High levels of personal debt and a faltering UK housing market create a severe economic downturn. The impacts we identified for the retail sector include some ideas which have now become “fashionable”: from a newfound interest in repair and second-hand shops to peer-to-peer finance taking off.

With hindsight, you could be forgiven for thinking these seem obvious. But it’s easy to be trapped in the present. And even the futurists were cautious - these were scenarios for 15 to 50 years ahead, not 12 months. The truth is that many of the ideas seemed positively loopy at the time to some people, and it’s only looking back that they make sense.

So how can we frame our minds to appreciate uncertainty before it happens?

Firstly, prepare for radical disruption and stretch your thinking. When the US Government’s own strategic scenarios forecast massive water shortages, agricultural devastation and violent conflict from climate change within the near future, it’s evidently more and more difficult to imagine radical but realistic change. If the abnormal appears normal, it’s essential to stay ahead of the game and consider truly extraordinary changes.

Secondly, don’t make predictions. They’ll be wrong. Instead, plan and prepare for a range of possible futures. Develop resilience by considering the risks and opportunities of each outcome.

Finally, and most importantly, keep an open mind. The most forward-thinking organisations actively seek out an array of ideas, opinions and those little “weak signals” that could turn into something bigger. Speak to people who completely disagree with your version of the future. And don’t dismiss seemingly wacky but fundamentally plausible ideas.

In January 1980, Time magazine lamented the poor quality futures work of the preceding decade: “Forecasting about the 1970s turned out to be a pathetic flop. Virulent inflation and an epochal energy crisis are only two of the most ominous realities that eluded the visions of virtually every forecaster”.

The author went on to slam the futurists’ ideas for the 1970s: “How would life in the U.S. be if a mere sampling of the 1969 prognostications had been accurate? The economy would be stable, steadily growing, with perhaps a bit of inflation. A superboom in housing would have occurred: a second home would be as ordinary as a second car. …People would be shopping by two-way cable television. Teaching machines would be widely used. Office work would be mostly automated”.

The futurists had spotted many of the emerging trends, but perhaps not the timelines. A “housing boom” (and collapse) did come to pass and “shopping by two-way cable” (or down a telephone wire) is still booming this Christmas despite the recession.

Today, we can at least point to some examples of open-minded thinking that considered our current crisis. No-one can ever get it entirely right, but we can at least try. Prepare for radical change. Consider a range of futures. And when someone asks you for predictions for the year ahead, be brave and keep an open mind.

_{Image: Isobel T}