Durban Outcomes
15th December, 2011 by Nick Robins | 1 commments
As we expected – but more than a day late – the 194 countries gathering at the annual climate conference met the three tasks before them at Durban: first, extending the Kyoto Protocol; second, putting some meat on the bones of last year’s Cancun agreements (particularly on climate finance); and third, setting course for a real deal preferably in 2015.
Image courtesy of UNclimatechange via Flickr
It is a complex package with necessarily fuzzy diplomatic language to bring all countries on board. At its heart lies the ‘Durban Platform for Enhanced Action’, which sets out a schedule for negotiating a new ‘protocol, legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force’ covering all countries by 2015. In diplomatic language, this is a ‘commitment to commit’.
So what makes this more than just another case of ‘kicking the carbon can down the road’ that many fossil-dependent economies had hoped for? The key factor is the slow but irreversible shifting of geopolitical interests. At Durban, the European Union forged a new alliance with the most climate vulnerable countries in Africa and the small island states, cutting across the traditional North-South divide. A pivotal group of emerging economies – led by the host South Africa – also joined this ‘coalition for greater ambition’, eventually bringing the more reluctant China, India and US on board.
Crucially, this timetable fits with the presidential electoral cycle in the US, is aligned with the 13th Five Year Plan in China – which also starts in 2015 – and should take place at a time of healthier economic prospects.
The risks of the Durban package are clear: no binding commitments on key industrialised countries, no closing of the GHG ‘ambition gap’, and no cash for the Green Climate Fund.
But none of this was in the realm of the possible for 2011. And the Durban conference did manage to reach a package deal in extra time, extending the Kyoto Protocol, establishing the Green Climate Fund and launching negotiations for a new legal agreement covering all countries. In the circumstances, I believe that this was the best outcome available and represents a small, but significant boost to low-carbon growth.
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As we expected – but more than a day late – the 194 countries gathering at the annual climate conference met the three tasks before them at Durban: first, extending the Kyoto Protocol; second, putting some meat on the bones of last year’s Cancun agreements (particularly on climate finance); and third, setting course for a real deal preferably in 2015.
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I was also in Durban observing the climate talks, and I struggle to share your optimism. The outcome is following a timetable set by global politics, not by science. As a result the Durban Platform does not deal with the crucial issues of the urgent need to cut carbon, does not close the existing loopholes (so that cuts are cuts, rather than claims), or come up with the finance desperately required for adaptation. It is a deal that might suit the politics, but politics is failing to deliver.
http://www.sustainablebristol.com/2011/12/failing-to-feel-the-heat-in-du...
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